What American Data Can and Cannot Tell Us
Data from the United States National Survey of Family Growth show that people marrying young face comparatively high rates of marital disruption.
The data also demonstrate that marriage and divorce patterns differ by education, race, ethnicity, economic conditions and cohabitation history.
However, these statistics do not support a simple universal statement that every male group marrying after 35 has a lower divorce rate than every younger group.
Some datasets contain relatively few men entering a first marriage at much older ages. Small sample sizes can make estimates less stable.
National averages also change across generations. A man who married at 36 in 1980 entered a different economic and social environment from a man marrying at 36 today.
Does the Benefit of Waiting Continue Forever?
Not necessarily.
Many studies find that the steep decline in divorce risk occurs when comparing teenage marriage with marriage in the mid-to-late twenties.
After that, the pattern becomes less consistent.
Some analyses suggest that risk continues to decline as marriage age rises. Others find that the advantage levels off. A few have reported an increase among people marrying for the first time in their later thirties, although that result is disputed and can depend heavily on statistical choices.
Possible reasons for variation include:
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Smaller numbers of first marriages at older ages
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Selection effects
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Previous cohabiting relationships
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Greater financial independence, making separation more feasible
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More established personal routines
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Different expectations about partnership
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Prior marriages or children from earlier relationships
The evidence therefore does not reveal a single perfect age that guarantees success.