Germany woke up on Monday to a political landscape that looked very different from the one voters had known for decades.
The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has won the state election in Saxony-Anhalt with a result that would have been almost unimaginable in mainstream German politics only a few years ago. The party secured roughly 44% of the vote, more than doubling its result from the previous state election and emerging as by far the strongest political force in the eastern German state. Reuters described the result as a historic breakthrough for Germany’s far right.
But there is an important distinction that should not be lost amid the dramatic headlines.
The AfD has won the election, but it has not yet taken control of the state government.
That distinction matters. The Saxony-Anhalt parliament has 83 seats, meaning 42 are required for an outright majority. With its roughly 44% vote share, the AfD is expected to hold 39 seats — just three short of the number required to govern alone. Most of the other parties have continued to reject cooperation with the AfD, leaving the question of how the next state government will be formed unresolved.
Nevertheless, the political significance of the result is enormous
For decades after the Second World War, Germany built a political system designed in large part to prevent the return of extremist forces to national or regional power. The country’s political culture developed around a strong commitment to democratic institutions, constitutional safeguards and, above all, the rejection of political movements associated with Germany’s Nazi past.
The AfD’s victory therefore represents more than an ordinary change in the balance of power in one eastern German state.
It is a warning that the political barriers surrounding the far right are under extraordinary pressure.
The numbers tell the story.
In the 2021 Saxony-Anhalt election, the AfD received about 20.8% of the vote. This time, its support has risen to approximately 44%. At the same time, the Christian Democratic Union, traditionally one of Germany’s dominant political forces and the governing party in the state, suffered a dramatic collapse, falling from roughly 37% in 2021 to around 17–18% in the latest election.
That is not simply an AfD success.
It is also a profound rejection of the political establishment.
The election took place in a state with a relatively small population, but its consequences extend far beyond Saxony-Anhalt. The result is being watched closely in Berlin because it raises a question that German politics has attempted to avoid for years:
What happens if the AfD becomes too large to be kept permanently outside government?
That question is now much harder to ignore.
AfD supporters immediately presented the result as proof that Germany is entering a new political era. Ulrich Siegmund, the party’s leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, portrayed the vote as a rejection of the existing political order and argued that voters had sent a clear message that the country could no longer continue on its current path.
The party’s national leadership is equally aware of the significance.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel had openly described the election as an opportunity for the party to enter government at state level for the first time. Before the election, she said the AfD would form the government in Saxony-Anhalt, demonstrating just how central this contest had become to the party’s long-term strategy.
The immediate result, however, is more complicated.
The AfD has won the largest share of the vote, but the party still needs either additional support in parliament or a change in the position of another political force to actually control the government.
And that is where Germany’s famous political “firewall” — the Brandmauer — becomes crucial.
For years, Germany’s mainstream parties have maintained that they will not form coalitions with the AfD. Chancellor Friedrich Merz reaffirmed that position on Monday, making clear that the CDU would not cooperate with the party despite its historic electoral performance.
So Germany is entering a politically extraordinary situation.
The AfD has become the dominant party in an entire German state.
But the other parties are still attempting to prevent that electoral victory from automatically becoming governmental power.
That tension is likely to define German politics in the days and weeks ahead.
To understand the magnitude of this result, it is not enough to say simply that Germany has “turned far right.”