The reasons behind the AfD’s rise are considerably more complicated.
Saxony-Anhalt is part of the former East Germany, a region where political attitudes have often developed differently from those in the western part of the country. Economic transformation following reunification, demographic decline, distrust of political institutions and a persistent sense among some voters that eastern Germany has not received equal recognition have all contributed to a distinctive political environment.
The AfD has been particularly successful in exploiting those frustrations.
But the party’s rise is not based on a single issue.
Immigration has been one of its central political themes. The party advocates significantly tougher immigration and asylum policies and has built much of its appeal around opposition to what it describes as uncontrolled migration.
The party has also positioned itself against Germany’s support for Ukraine and has called for a fundamentally different relationship with Russia. Its broader political program is nationalist, socially conservative and deeply critical of the European political establishmen.
Those positions have allowed the AfD to attract voters who feel increasingly disconnected from Germany’s traditional political parties.
Economic frustration has also played a major role.
Germany has struggled with weak economic growth, industrial pressures and growing concerns about the competitiveness of its traditional manufacturing base. These problems have created fertile ground for political movements promising a sharp break with established policies.
Reuters noted that the AfD’s success is occurring against a backdrop of dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government and broader frustration with Germany’s political leadership.
The election therefore cannot simply be interpreted as a referendum on immigration.
For many voters, it is also a referendum on whether the political establishment is capable of solving everyday problems.
That distinction is critical.
When traditional parties fail to convince voters that they can improve living standards, restore economic confidence or respond effectively to social concerns, protest parties gain an opening.
The AfD has become the principal beneficiary of that dissatisfaction.
And the collapse of the CDU vote demonstrates how serious the problem has become for Germany’s political centre.
The CDU had dominated Saxony-Anhalt politics for years. In the previous election, it won more than a third of the vote. This time, it fell to less than half that level.
That is a devastating result for Chancellor Merz’s political camp.
Although state elections are not direct referendums on the federal government, voters frequently use them to express their approval or disapproval of national politics. Saxony-Anhalt therefore represents a major warning for Merz.
The message from voters appears to be that the political centre is losing its ability to retain support, especially in parts of eastern Germany.
The AfD understands this perfectly.
Its strategy is no longer simply to become a permanent protest party.
It wants to become a governing party.
That is why Saxony-Anhalt matters so much.
For years, the AfD could argue that it was excluded from government because the establishment was afraid of its popularity. If it eventually succeeds in forming a state government, that argument becomes even more powerful.
The party could then point to a functioning administration as evidence that it is capable of governing.
That would change the political debate dramatically.
Instead of asking whether voters should support the AfD, Germany’s political system would have to confront a more difficult question:
Can the traditional parties continue to exclude a party that may represent nearly half of the electorate in some regions?