For the CDU, this is an especially dangerous dilemma.
On one side is the Brandmauer.
The CDU has repeatedly rejected cooperation with the AfD because of the latter’s extremist classification by Germany’s domestic intelligence authorities and because of fundamental disagreements over democratic values, immigration, Europe and foreign policy.
On the other side is electoral mathematics.
If the AfD remains around 40% or higher in eastern German states, traditional coalition structures become increasingly difficult to maintain.
This is precisely the situation now unfolding in Saxony-Anhalt.
The AfD does not need to convince everyone.
It only needs to become so large that excluding it becomes politically and mathematically difficult.
That is a very different strategy from simply winning elections.
It is a strategy aimed at changing the structure of German politics itself.
The election also carries a warning for the broader European political landscape.
Germany has long been viewed as one of the strongest barriers against the European far right because of its historical experience with National Socialism. Yet the country is now experiencing the same political forces visible elsewhere in Europe: distrust of established parties, anxiety over immigration, economic insecurity, cultural polarization and growing support for nationalist movements.
The German case is particularly significant because of the country’s size and political weight within the European Union.
If the AfD continues to grow, the consequences will not stop at the German border.
Germany plays a central role in European economic policy, EU foreign policy and support for Ukraine. A major transformation in German politics would therefore have consequences for the future direction of Europe itself.
The phrase “Germany is waking up” may sound powerful, but the real question is:
What exactly is Germany waking up to?
The Saxony-Anhalt election does not prove that Germany as a whole has become an AfD country.
Nor does it mean that the AfD has already taken control of a German state.
What it does prove is that the party has reached a level of electoral strength that Germany’s traditional political system can no longer treat as a temporary protest phenomenon.
That is perhaps the most important message of the election.
The AfD has demonstrated that it can win an extraordinary share of the vote in a German state.
It has demonstrated that the Brandmauer does not prevent voters from supporting it.
And it has demonstrated that dissatisfaction with the political establishment can translate into an electoral landslide.
The immediate challenge is now forming a government.
With approximately 39 of 83 seats, the AfD is close to an outright majority but remains short of it. The party would need either support from lawmakers outside its parliamentary group or some form of cooperation with another political force.
So the next stage could be even more consequential than the election itself.
Will members of another party break ranks?