Former President Donald Trump has pledged to deliver what he calls a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to millions of Americans—a promise that has generated widespread curiosity and a flood of questions, the most common being: “When will I receive my money?”

From the beginning of his administration, Trump imposed extensive tariffs on companies and consumers importing goods from abroad. Now, he appears to be hoping that this proposed dividend will help win support among the roughly 61 percent of Americans who disapprove of his trade policies.

“We’ve taken in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariff money. We’re going to be issuing dividends,” Trump said earlier this month as he reiterated the pledge. According to him, payments could arrive “by the middle of next year, or a little bit later.”

When originally announcing the plan, Trump explained that the program would be targeted toward Americans with “low, moderate, and middle incomes.” However, he did not specify the exact qualifications, leaving many unsure about who would actually be eligible for the payout.

Although the proposal echoes the $300 billion COVID-era stimulus checks—which provided at least $1,200 to individuals and families—there is still no clear indication of whether this “tariff dividend” will function in a similar way, or if it will be implemented at all.

Who Would Receive the $2,000 Tariff Dividend?

Because no official written guidelines exist yet, speculation has grown online. Social security commentator and disability YouTuber “Blind to Billionaire” offered a simple prediction regarding potential eligibility based on how similar programs have worked in the past.

He explained: “It is based on your income—that’s it. Let me make it very clear. Is your income below $75,000 a year as an individual—yes or no? That’s all you need to know. If your answer is yes, you are most likely eligible for this.”

Drawing on precedents from previous federal programs, he added: “Generally, the threshold they put in place for income is $75,000 for an individual and $150,000 as a married couple.”

While these guidelines are unofficial, they reflect patterns seen in earlier stimulus efforts. Many Americans are using these benchmarks as a reference point for what the final criteria might resemble, though no one can say for certain until the administration issues formal instructions.

Will Americans Actually Receive a $2,000 Check?

Despite the growing excitement surrounding the idea, major obstacles stand in the way. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently cast doubt on the likelihood of the dividend becoming reality during an interview with Fox Business.

“We will see,” he commented when asked whether Americans can expect the payment. Bessent stressed that Trump would need approval from Congress to authorize such a massive spending initiative—an essential step that could prove challenging.

He also noted that the income cap mentioned publicly by Trump is not yet finalized, suggesting that the administration has floated the idea of limiting payouts to families earning under roughly $100,000.

Adding another complication, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that the program could cost up to $600 billion annually—more than twice the government’s annual tariff revenues. This raises questions about fiscal sustainability, political feasibility, and the likelihood that the plan would pass through both chambers of Congress.

Beyond the political and economic challenges, analysts point out that even if the program does move forward, the rollout could take months to design, implement, and distribute. This leaves many Americans unsure whether the idea represents a genuine near-term policy or a campaign-season promise still in its early stages.