Panama’s seasonal upwelling collapsed in 2025, linked to reduced winds. The event signals risks for fisheries and climate-sensitive ocean processes. The annual phenomenon of upwelling in the Gulf of Panama failed to occur in 2025 for the first time on record. A team of scientists from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) linked the disruption to weakened trade winds.

The finding underscores how changes in climate can directly affect essential ocean processes and the coastal populations that depend on them.

Seasonal dynamics of upwelling: Each year during Central America’s dry season (typically December through April), northern trade winds trigger upwelling in the Gulf of Panama. This process brings cold, nutrient-rich waters from deep in the ocean to the surface, sustaining productive fisheries and shielding coral reefs from heat stress. The rising cool waters also keep the Pacific coast of Panama noticeably cooler during the region’s “summer” vacation months.

STRI researchers have monitored this seasonal cycle for more than four decades, documenting its consistent recurrence between January and April. In 2025, however, the process did not take place, marking the first observed failure. As a result, expected temperature declines and productivity increases were significantly reduced.

In a study published in PNAS, the team concluded that a sharp weakening of wind patterns was the likely driver of this unprecedented event. The results reveal how climate instability can disrupt long-standing oceanic systems that have supported coastal fisheries for millennia. Additional investigation is needed to pinpoint the exact mechanisms and assess the potential long-term impacts on marine resources.

Growing vulnerability of tropical systems: This finding highlights the growing vulnerability of tropical upwelling systems, which, despite their enormous ecological and socioeconomic importance, remain poorly monitored. It also underscores the urgency of strengthening ocean-climate observation and prediction capabilities in the planet’s tropical regions. This result marks one of the first major outcomes of the collaboration between the S/Y Eugen Seibold research vessel from the Max Planck Institute and STRI.